Weather forecasting and prediction
Gerrity, Joseph P. National Meteorological Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Camp Springs, Maryland.
Gyakum, John R. Department of Meteorology, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
Anthes, Richard A. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado.
Bosart, Lance F. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, State University of New York, Albany, New York.
Browning, Keith A. Formerly, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom.
O'Lenic, Edward A. Climate Analysis Center, National Weather Service, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC.
- Numerical Weather Prediction
- Cloud and precipitation prediction
- Global prediction
- Numerical models of climate
- Limited-area models
- Data collection and analysis
- Operational models
- Forecast products and forecast skill
- Comparison with traditional forecasting
- Information technology
- Nowcasting and mesoscale models
- Extended-Range Prediction
- Climate versus weather
- Scientific basis
- Formulating an outlook
- Links to Primary Literature
- Additional Readings
Processes for formulating and disseminating information about future weather conditions based upon the collection and analysis of meteorological observations. Weather forecasts may be classified according to the space and time scale of the predicted phenomena. Atmospheric fluctuations with a length of less than 100 m (330 ft) and a period of less than 100 s are considered to be turbulent. Prediction of turbulence extends only to establishing its statistical properties, insofar as these are determined by the thermal and dynamic stability of the air and by the aerodynamic roughness of the underlying surface. The study of atmospheric turbulence is called micrometeorology; it is of importance for understanding the diffusion of air pollutants and other aspects of the climate near the ground. Standard meteorological observations are made with sampling techniques that filter out the influence of turbulence. Common terminology distinguishes among three classes of phenomena with a scale that is larger than the turbulent microscale: the mesoscale, synoptic scale, and planetary scale.
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